It’s been over a month since Santa Clara County announced its shelter-in-place. While it’s supposed to end May 3rd, that may not be the case. Until a vaccine is developed (around 12-18 months), measures have to be taken in order to make sure the virus doesn’t create a surge of cases. One reason social distancing is extremely important is due to Santa Clara not having enough hospital beds to care for everyone (about 4,500). It also allows health care providers to increase their resources and delays the peak of cases. If it’s lifted too quickly, a resurgence will happen. Social distancing may transition to what is called the “lightswitch” method where there are periods of heavy social distancing and periods without. This way, hospitals wouldn’t be overwhelmed with a large number of cases until a vaccine is ready. The website these predictions are from also has an interactive model in which you're able to see what could potentially result from doing social distancing and the light switch method.
If you look at the graphs, you’ll notice that these graphs call for social distancing/the lightswitch method to last until July 2021 for it to be effective and minimize damage as much as possible. Of course, there is no absolute predictor for how long this will last, I doubt it will end on May 3rd. San Jose State University, as well as California State Fullerton, just announced it’s classes for fall 2020 will be online. While the future remains unknown, I hope that we all get the first semester of college we deserve, considering our last semester of high school has abruptly ended.
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While social distancing is unfortunate and I'm also hoping for in-person classes in the fall, I think it's important to keep it going as long as it's beneficial. With less stress on the healthcare system it will be easier to care for the sick. Additionally, many researchers and companies are currently developing and testing potential vaccines so if these are available when the shelter in place orders are lifted, there will be a less likely chance of a resurgence.
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